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lork



Joined: 05 Jan 2006
Posts: 36
PostPosted: Thu Feb 16, 2006 8:18 pm    Post subject: Flush and straights Reply with quote

Should I chase flushes and straights after the flop? Assuming I have a 4 card flush after the flop but no pairs. Or assume I have an open ended straight after the flop but no pair. Also I'm not crazy enuf to stay if other players are betting hundreds of chips on their hands but what if the bets are the mininums? What then. Do you stay with it or fold it? I will assume chasing an inside straight is not worth discussing but if I'm wrong on that speak up please.
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chris



Joined: 13 Jan 2006
Posts: 39
PostPosted: Thu Feb 16, 2006 8:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It all depends. In NL I will chase with nothing more than an overcard to the board as long as my opponents are letting me in cheap and I'm confident my hand will be best if it hits. As far as flush and straight sraws, I will call reasonable sized bets chasing a draw. If I'm going to chase in a multi-way pot, I will only chase the nut or second nut flush, and I won't draw to the ignorant end of a straight. In a short handed pot, you need to use judgement when chasing a draw that isn't to the nuts. For instance, if you are in a game with two opponents, chasing a jack high flush is probably correct, but at a full table it is too easy to get beat.
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pritz



Joined: 17 Jan 2006
Posts: 31
PostPosted: Thu Feb 16, 2006 8:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Looks like you are playing No-Limit, but I'll toss in some Limit stuff, assuming you have four cards to St8 or Flush.

Odds to hit on next card:

Outside straight = 5:1
Inside straight = 11:1
Flush = 4:1

In Limit Holdem, its pretty straight foward... If the pot is laying better odds than the odds to hit your card... Call.

Example: You have a 4-flush (4:1) to hit. The Pot is $100 and it will cost you $20 to call... (5:1). This is a call. If it is raised to you, $40... the pot is laying 2.5:1 and a call would not be correct.

If you are not to the nuts then other factors need to be considered.

If it is not laying correct odds to call, examine implied odds... that is if your pot odds are close to a call but not quite, will players after you bet to make the call correct? Will you get paid off if you make your hand?

By using "odds to hit" compared to "pot odds" you will profit in the long run... maybe.
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lork



Joined: 05 Jan 2006
Posts: 36
PostPosted: Thu Feb 16, 2006 8:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

pritz, I like what you said, but I think you're numbers are a little off.

for example, you said it's a 4:1 chance of hitting you're flush on the next card, but in reality we know that 4 of those 13 spades in the deck are gone. so you have to calculate it like this. (i'll do an example flop and assume you are drawing to the nuts and are last to act)

you have As2s - and the flop comes

7s 8s 4c

now you know what 5 of the 52 cards in the deck are, and you know there are 47 unseen cards and 9 of them are spades, giving you a 9/47 chance that the next card will be a spade, or more simply a 1/5 chance that you're next card will be a spade. however, you have two cards to make that flush, so on the turn, if you dont get a spade you have a 9/46 chance (about 1/5 again).

so say it's 5-10 limit, and 5 people called the flop, there is 25 bucks in the pot. unless it's three bet, it's worth calling the flop, even raising with enough action, and on the turn, you can do the math.

also, if you think you're Ace is good if it hits, you can count three more outs so you'de have a 12/47 chance of hitting the turn (a little better then 1/4).

with open ended straights you have 8 outs, and with inside straights you have 4 outs. you also have to calculate how much action you will get when you hit, because sometimes it's worthwhile to take bad odds if when it hits, you'll get paid handsomely.
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johnf



Joined: 31 Dec 2005
Posts: 24
PostPosted: Thu Feb 16, 2006 8:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

For clarity, if you were trying to show the numbers as a fraction, you're right. If you were trying to show the numbers as odds, you were a little off.

The fraction 1/5 symbolizing one time in five is equivalent to 4:1 against. 4:1 against reads "On average of five trials, 4 times it won't happen and 1 time it will happen"

9/47 = ~19%
odds-wise, it's calculated as 38:9 or roughly 4.2:1
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DeepBlue



Joined: 19 Dec 2005
Posts: 121
PostPosted: Thu Feb 16, 2006 10:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think that the odds have finally been calculated correctly!

The general rule is, is it cheap to stay in on the chance of hitting a straight? If it's still minimum raises, checks and calls round the table then I would always stay in after the flop with 4 thus far.

It does depend more on what cards I hold though - if I had an Ace or King, I would definitely be looking at staying in, though two low value suited cards would have me a little worried that someone else is chasing the flush like me.
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